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Coface Country Risk Conference 2019. Two pitfalls for businesses in 2019: the economic downturn and political risks

Coface will be sharing its vision of the major trends in the world economy in 2019 with businesses at its annual conference on country and sectoral risks.

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Wind energy industry: Production costs will increase under the influence of the trade war and the liquidity squeeze

Alongside other renewables, wind energy has experienced a strong growth since the mid-2000s across the world, spurred on by strong support from governments, its favorable cost-competiveness ratios (compared to nuclear plants or coal facilities) and a less damaging environmental impact.

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Country and sector risks worldwide

• Higher oil prices and continued capital outflows from emerging markets mark the third quarter of 2018
• A wave of sectorial downgrades in Turkey and Argentina
• Risks improve in Central Europe and the CIS
• Downgrades for Pakistan and Nicaragua, mainly due to political risks

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Central & Eastern European insolvencies: The good times are over

Despite economic acceleration in the region, insolvencies increased by +6.4% in 2017. The weakening liquidity of CEE businesses is surprising, as they have been experiencing the highest rate of economic expansion since 2008.

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Political risks in Asia are on the rise

According to Coface’s Political Risk Index, Asia scored 45% on the latest risk ranking, above the world average of 35%. Nevertheless, this score remains lower than those of Sub Saharan Africa, the Middle East & North Africa, Central Europe and Latin America.

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COFACE TOP 500 CEE 2018

Coface announces Top 500 CEE companies: household consumption boosts economic activity in CEE.

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Greece's exit from the international bailout programme

With its exit from the European bailout programme, Greece is looking forward to closure on eight successive years of crises. For the first time since 2008, GDP grew for four consecutive quarters. Growth in 2017 reached +1.4%, driven by investment and dynamic external demand. A further development of +2% is forecast for 2018, despite the eurozone undergoing a slight slowdown.

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Country and sector risks worldwide

• A sense of déjà-vu between the economic contexts of 2018 and of 2012-2013
• Italy, downgraded to A4, has been the focus of all attention
• The rise in oil prices is benefiting the energy sector in several countries but, combined with capital outflows, is detrimental to the economies of Argentina, Turkey, Sri Lanka and India
• Construction and retail are the primary sectors to be affected by the currency risk in the emerging countries
• The intensification of protectionist policies is alarming businesses

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Taking stock of global metal sector trends and outlook

Global metals sector: prices to continue to rise in 2018, ahead of a possible slight decline in 2019.

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Western Balkans’ accession to EU membership likely to be completed - supported by the region’s strategic importance

The European Union - Western Balkans Summit will take place in Sofia, Bulgaria, on the 17th of May 2018. This meeting aims to reaffirm the EU’s commitment towards the Western Balkans gaining EU membership. Coface’s economists see the EU accession as likely to happen, particularly as it would counterbalance Russian and Chinese presence in the region.

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New Mediterranean trade routes

In the Mediterranean, the recent rise in protectionism is starting to transform the vast network of free trade agreements and reshape intra-Mediterranean trade routes. Two new trends are emerging:
• South-Med and East-Med countries are moving upmarket, as seen in particular in exports of automotive and ICT goods;
• New raw material (energy, chemicals and construction) suppliers, such as Greece, Cyprus and Egypt, are appearing in the region.

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Country and sector risks worldwide

Now that peak growth has been reached in the United States and Europe, businesses are preparing for supply side constraints and the risk of protectionism.

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China Corporate Payment Survey 2018

The aim of this exercise is to better understand corporate credit management practices and payment experiences. In our latest survey, data collection was conducted during the final quarter of 2017, and valid responses were received from 1,003 companies.

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Central and Eastern Europe: Political risks on the rise but no impact yet on local businesses

With the wave of ongoing elections in countries such as Hungary, Czech Republic, Poland and Slovenia, Central and Eastern Europe is undergoing a major period of change against the background of economic growth that is still strong. Coface’s political risk index illustrates a diverse picture throughout the region.

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Poland Payment Survey 2018: Payment delays mounting amid robust economic growth

According to our analysis, covering a wide range of company sizes and sectors, sales on credit are made extensively, with all surveyed companies having written terms and conditions to this end, and that 99% of corporates continue to face payment delays, some of which are long and unlikely to be fulfilled.

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NAFTA renegotiations - could Mexico’s “high-risk” automotive industry deteriorate into a crisis?

Mexico’s automotive industry plays an important role in its economy. The sector’s representativeness rose from 1.5% of country’s GDP and 8.5% of its manufacturing output in 1993, to 3% of GDP and 18% of manufacturing output in 2015. Moreover, Mexico has 28 vehicle manufacturing plants which generate, directly and indirectly, jobs for 1.7 million people. President Donald Trump’s rhetoric since the beginning of his electoral campaign has not yet damaged the sector, but risks have been intensified by NAFTA renegotiations and Mexico’s electoral agenda.

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Brexit: Despite several shocks, the United Kingdom will remain attractive for businesses

Businesses have proven their resilience since the referendum, but a downturn in investments is starting to be seen.
The fall in growth (1.4% in 2017 and 1.2% in 2018) will lead to a rise in the number of business failures, of 8.7%1 and 8%1 respectively

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Labour shortages in Central and Eastern Europe countries: a growing concern for businesses

Labour markets in the Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) region are continuing to improve.
Unemployment rates have reached the lowest levels ever recorded and most CEE economies are enjoying lower unemployment than the EU average

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China corporate payment survey: the devil is in the detail

In 2016, credit extension practices in China differed from those seen in previous years. Fewer Chinese companies offered credit sales – but (...)

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Country risk assessment map - 1st quarter 2017

160 countries under the magnifying glass

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